In 2018, the evolution of SSD technology is set to become one of the most significant trends shaping enterprise storage. Over the past year, the global storage industry has experienced a rollercoaster of changes. Traditional SAN equipment has seen a decline in interest, while organizations have turned their attention toward hyper-converged infrastructure, software-only solutions, and solid-state drives. As SSDs continue to improve in performance for data center applications, more companies are shifting from hard disk drives (HDDs) to solid-state drives.
As we step into 2018, the industry will build upon these trends, adding new innovations to the data center storage landscape. SSDs are expected to see rapid growth in core technologies, performance, capacity, and affordability. The introduction of NVMe has brought flash IOPS and GB/s to mainstream applications, and we're on the brink of seeing mainstream NVMe over Ethernet, which could significantly reshape future storage system configurations.
Large-scale shipments of 32TB SSDs by suppliers are now becoming common, far outpacing the largest HDDs, which still hover around 16TB. With advancements in 3D chip technology, 50TB and even 100TB drives may become available in 2018, especially if 4-bit memory units reach their targets. Flash memory chip shortages are diminishing, and prices are expected to drop again, although demand might grow faster than anticipated, slowing the pace of price reductions.
RAID arrays are also facing challenges due to the inherent performance limitations of traditional controller designs, making it difficult to manage large numbers of SSDs efficiently. Meanwhile, small storage devices based on commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) servers are gaining traction, meeting the needs of object storage and hyper-converged environments. Startups like Excelero are leading this shift, using Ethernet-based NVMe to connect drives directly to clusters at RDMA speeds.
The industry's move toward COTS server frameworks is evident. While traditional storage vendors are experiencing single-digit revenue growth, original design manufacturers providing COTS solutions to cloud providers have seen a 44% revenue increase. This growth is driven by the availability of unbundled storage software, which combines low-cost platforms with software to accelerate market commoditization. As software-defined storage (SDS) gains momentum, this trend will intensify in 2018.
SDS separates control and service software from hardware, a concept that has proven successful in networking and cloud computing. Extending this to storage makes sense and is necessary. We can expect more SDS solutions in 2018, with competition in this space surpassing anything seen in the past decade.
NVMe is gradually replacing SAS and SATA as the interface for enterprise-class drives. It not only reduces CPU overhead but also supports new drive specifications. In 2018, we'll likely see the emergence of 2.5-inch and 32-size SSDs, along with M.2 variants, which will have a major impact on the industry.
Intel recently introduced an M.2 blade drive with 33+ TB capacity, compatible with 1U servers featuring 32 slots. This offers a 1PB ultra-fast 1U storage solution. Other vendors are also working on similar high-density products, marking an important trend. Storage systems are becoming smaller, yet more powerful, with SSD performance often exceeding that of HDD arrays.
High-performance SSDs can work alongside deduplication and compression technologies, which use excess bandwidth to enhance efficiency. For many commercial use cases, effective capacity can be more than five times the raw capacity. Compression reduces the number of required devices, making SSD storage much more cost-effective than HDDs.
Looking closer at 2018’s storage trends, SSD performance has reached new heights. High-end SSDs can achieve 10GB/sec throughput and millions of random IOPS. The difference between enterprise and consumer-grade SSDs lies in internal parallelism and the efficiency of the NVMe interface. NVMe uses PCIe connections similar to SATA, and its cost is comparable. This has driven the migration from SAS to NVMe, which is likely to dominate between 2018 and 2019.
SSD capacity is also increasing rapidly. At the Flash Memory Summit in 2017, vendors announced plans for a 100TB 2.5-inch drive. While 2018 may bring 50 or 64TB drives, this would double the current maximum SSD capacity. These large capacities reduce storage footprint, power consumption, and overall TCO, shifting costs from physical boxes to the motherboard.
QLC (four-level cell) technology further increases capacity, though write wear is higher due to closer voltage levels. By 2018, improvements in error correction and signal processing will make QLC suitable for cold data storage, challenging traditional SATA 3.5-inch drives.
The rise of COTS components is reshaping the market. Both server and storage markets are growing quickly, offering economic and performance advantages over proprietary hardware. In 2018, COTS adoption will be stronger, supported by a 44% revenue increase for COTS-based ODMs in Q3 2017. This trend will expand storage software options from both established vendors and startups, aligning well with SDS and HCI concepts.
Software-defined storage continues to evolve, moving beyond hype to deliver flexible, scalable, and cost-effective virtualized storage. Its maturity in 2018 will shift value from hardware to integrated software solutions, accelerating the hybrid cloud transition and automating storage management.
NVMe over Ethernet (NoE) is gaining traction, particularly in the fast-growing HCI market. It solves performance bottlenecks by enabling direct access to shared storage across clusters, with lower costs compared to Fibre Channel or InfiniBand. Expect strong adoption in 2018, with new products expected in the second half of the year.
Ultra-dense packaging and data compression technologies are also advancing. Smaller form factor SSDs, such as M.2 and extended blades, offer high density and low power consumption. Combined with compression, they enable massive storage capacities in compact spaces, potentially supporting 5PB in 1U devices.
NVDIMM technology is emerging, bringing persistent memory to the CPU bus. In 2018, NVDIMMs using flash will be twice as fast as SSDs, while Optane could be four times faster. This opens new possibilities for byte-addressable memory and persistent storage, requiring system-wide changes to support these innovations.
Overall, 2018 promises to be a transformative year for enterprise storage, with SSDs, NVMe, COTS, and SDS driving innovation and efficiency across data centers.
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