Time flies by, and another year has passed. At first glance, the passenger car market in China in 2017 looked similar to previous years. However, the overall sales of passenger cars have been on a downward trend for several years, influenced by the expansion of high-speed rail networks and the growing number of private vehicles. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2017, the total sales of passenger cars (including non-integrated vehicles) reached 450,900 units, a year-on-year decline of 5.37%. Among these, large passenger cars saw a slight increase of 1.89%, while medium-sized passenger cars dropped by 18.15%, and light passenger cars fell by 3.75%. The school bus market also continued its decline, with sales dropping by 12.38% to around 13,200 units during the same period.
Despite the overall downturn, the bus market in 2017 had its own unique characteristics. In the first half of the year, passenger car sales hit a low point, but by the second half, the industry's combined efforts helped reduce the decline, leading to improved performance in certain segments.
One standout trend was the rise of 10-meter buses, which became the "new darling" of the market. From January to November 2017, over 71,700 buses with a capacity of 6 meters or more were sold, capturing 47.9% of the market share. This outperformed the 62,300 passenger cars sold, which held a 41.7% share. The shift in preference was largely due to the new energy subsidy policy changes in 2017, which made 10-meter and 8-meter models more cost-effective.
Under the new subsidy framework, operational subsidies became more important as acquisition subsidies decreased. For example, 6- to 8-meter pure electric buses received an annual operating subsidy of 40,000 yuan, while 8- to 10-meter models got 60,000 yuan, and those over 10 meters received 80,000 yuan. This structure naturally encouraged buyers to opt for 10-meter and 8-meter models.
New energy buses also showed reduced dependency on subsidies. Although the 2017–2018 subsidies were cut by 20% compared to 2016, and further reduced by 40% from 2019 to 2020, the market still performed well. In the first 11 months of 2017, pure electric bus sales slightly declined by 0.97%, while sales of pure electric buses in the large and light segments increased by 16.01% and 29.6%, respectively. Industry experts noted that the impact of subsidy cuts was less severe than expected, as new energy buses had already gained recognition for their low operating costs.
Wu Zhenqing, deputy secretary-general of the China Road Society Bus Division, emphasized that the influence of subsidy reductions on new energy bus sales was gradually diminishing. He pointed out that government support for new energy buses remained strong, and the market trend was irreversible. Han Peng, brand director at Futian Ouhui Bus Department, added that many second- and third-tier cities were also adopting new energy buses, driven by environmental concerns rather than price sensitivity.
In addition to the bus segment, new energy logistics vehicles emerged as a bright spot in 2017. Sales of these specialized vehicles grew by 26.74% year-on-year, with significant increases in both light and medium-sized markets. This growth was fueled by urbanization, rising consumer demand, and the rapid expansion of e-commerce logistics. As city restrictions on trucks increased, new energy logistics vehicles became a preferred choice for urban freight. Zhen Zhenqing highlighted that in the first nine months of 2017, sales of 5- to 7-meter new energy logistics vehicles surged by over 8 times year-on-year, with major contributions from companies like Zhongtong and Dongfeng Liyang.
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