A report from Bell Labs predicts that by 2020 the cellular network traffic generated by Internet of Things (IoT) devices will only account for 2% of the overall traffic, and a real massive increase will be supported It will only be realized when the video sensor and camera begin to occupy the mainstream position.
Bell Labs, which has a long history and is now part of Nokia (Nokia), has always been very concerned about "big problems"; and the first report published by the newly established ConsulTIng group of the lab is to discuss how to Build the mobile network of the future, and how operators can make profits while responding to the demand for network traffic in 2020.
The three key issues that the Bell Labs report focuses on are:
·What is the potential demand for today's new services? And by 2020, how much will these demands grow in the global and regional markets?
·How many of those needs can be met through unlicensed spectrum solutions? And how can mobile network operators profit from other services (including high mobility, long distance, and high performance)?
·How to change the network? How can new technologies and architectures help overcome key challenges?
In response to the above problems, a main conclusion is that at the current technology development speed and based on the current economic situation, only 81% of global demand can be met by Wi-Fi and cellular networks (and Wi-Fi occupies three of them. Bis ratio). And an important message is that mobile network operators urgently need to accelerate investment to combat such a huge gap.
The currently planned technology and strategy can only solve part of the opportunity gap (opportunity gap)
Perhaps this certainly means self-promotion, but this is an immediate warning from Nokia and its infrastructure supplier competitors. The Bell Labs advisory team emphasized that the report is based on their research on the needs and desires of people for digital content and services, and is not a simple inference of future mobile Internet traffic trends.
The report concludes that only relying on 3G, 4G (LTE) technology and small cells, operators cannot profitably respond to network needs that cannot be covered by Wi-Fi and other technologies, or even half of them. .
then what should we do? The suggestion is that telecom operators need to adopt new and potentially disruptive business models, and actually start to promote the development of 5G and cloud technologies, including network function virtualization (network funcTIon virtualizaTIon, NFV) and software defined networks (software defined networks, SDN).
The report emphasizes that the cost of any such transformation must be resolved on a case-by-case basis. This is mainly because any transformation will still largely depend on the state of the existing network infrastructure, labor costs, and access rights. And regulatory restrictions, and don’t forget, there are operational support systems that support existing and future networks. And this kind of case evaluation is exactly what the Bell Labs advisory team is preparing to cooperate with operators around the world.
The Internet of Things brings unknowns to the mobile network
Not surprisingly, the Bell Labs report expects that the Internet of Things will become an "emerging unknown" in the network equation; the authors of the report stated that the number of Internet of Things connected devices will increase from 1.6 billion in 2014 and in 2020. Increase to between 20 billion and 46 billion units.
However, despite the large expected adoption rate of IoT devices, the total cellular network traffic generated by such devices will only account for 2% of the overall mobile network traffic in 2020; the actual substantial increase will have to wait for the support of video. Measuring instruments and cameras have become mainstream. In fact, the report pointed out that audio/video streaming will be the "largest contributor" to network traffic in the short term, and is estimated to account for 79% of the total increase in traffic by 2020.
The Bell Labs report also warned that operators need to respond to the massive increase in control plane capacity to handle the sporadic transmissions generated by billions or tens of billions of networked devices.
Of course, IoT traffic will generate much higher signaling traffic than data traffic; for example, a typical IoT device may require 2,500 transactions or connections, but only consume 1MB of data, but The amount of data of the same scale may be consumed by a single mobile video connection.
The report pointed out that under this destructive view, daily network connections from cellular IoT devices will grow by 16 to 135 times by 2020, which is three times the number of connections generated by humans. Marcus Weldon, president and chief technology officer of Nokia Bell Labs, believes that the industry urgently needs to have a key conversation about the future of networks and how to build them.
He pointed out that the next stage of human evolution will involve "automation of life," and the world will create billions of interconnected objects, including smart devices, cameras, robots, sensors, and real-time video and data streaming. Exchange-not only related to people, but also cloud systems that extract knowledge from those data and perform tasks to make our work and daily life more convenient and the environment more intelligent.
Weldon said: "This new era of digitalization will produce a major shift in demand, challenging mobile operators to achieve the highest performance at the lowest cost per unit, while supporting a wealth of personalization."
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