matter:
1. The announced export tax rebate rate adjustment product list includes only electric fans (including ceiling fans, floor fans, ventilation fans, wall fans). The export tax rebate rate has been adjusted from 13% to 9%. Other household appliances are not involved. 2, non-electrical household hardware products (including gas stoves, steel and enamelware cookware, tableware, etc.) The export tax rebate rate was adjusted from 13% to 5%; 3. The lighting product rebate rate was reduced from 13% to 11%, the tax rate of electric light source products has not been lowered.
comment:
Export of home appliance listed companies is not affected
Since the export tax rebate rate adjustment only involves fans, and the home appliance listed company has few fan export business in its existing business, the overall judgment of this export tax rebate rate does not affect the export business of home appliance listed companies.
The reduction of the export tax rebate rate for resource products is conducive to the loosening of the domestic supply environment for raw materials in the household appliance industry. In view of the multiple impacts of corporate supply and demand and the competitive landscape, we will not adjust the performance forecasts of each company.
In the previous recommended companies, Gree Electric Appliances Co., Ltd. continued to recommend Gree Electric Appliances. The EPS in 2007 and 2008 were 1.15 yuan and 1.6 yuan respectively. According to the 30-fold dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2008, the half-year target price was 48 yuan. Maintain Qingdao Haier's overweight rating.
Midea’s recent gains have been very large, far exceeding our target price (49 yuan before the transfer and ex-rights, 25 yuan after the ex-rights), and maintaining the profit forecast for the US appliances in 2007 and 2008 were 0.87 yuan and 1.05 yuan respectively. Later, in the future, it may be based on the increase in the company's capital operation, the performance forecast is raised, but the capital operation is uncertain and cannot be accurately predicted. At present, the company's share price has already reflected the possible changes in the company's fundamentals, and the investment rating has been adjusted to hold.
Decrease the export tax rebate rate for household hardware products has a slight negative impact on Supor
The export tax rebate rate for household stoves (gas stoves) has been lowered. The small home appliance listed company Zhonghuadi Co., Ltd. (002032) is the leader in the stove industry, but Vantage has no related export business and its performance is not affected.
The tax rebate rate for steel products has been reduced from 13% to 5%. The impact on Supor is as follows:
In the past two years, Supor’s exports accounted for 30% of the total revenue, and the export was mainly based on cookware products. Among the exported cookware products, stainless steel cookware products affected by the tax rebate rate reduction accounted for 30%-40% (the rest 60%-70%) The aluminum cookware is not affected by the tax rebate rate reduction. The proportion of income affected by the tax rebate rate of Supor is about 10%. The direct reduction of 8 percentage points according to the tax rebate rate directly affects the profit. Supor’s net profit is less than 1% in the short term. . In fact, Supor has certain negotiating ability for export-oriented orders that have not been signed in the second half of the year. In the following years, the export cost can be partially transferred, that is, the impact of the downward adjustment of the export tax rebate rate can be largely digested in the medium and long term. In the second quarter of this year, the company maintained a high growth momentum in the first quarter. We considered raising the full-year profit forecast and the negative impact of the comprehensive export tax rebate rate. The EPS forecasts for 2007 and 2008 were revised to 0.86 yuan and 1.20 yuan, respectively, up by 0.04. Yuan and 0.06 yuan, maintaining an overweight rating.
Lighting listed companies are basically unaffected
Lighting industry listed companies Foshan Lighting (Market Forum), Zhejiang Sunshine (Market Forum) and Snow Wright are mainly based on electric light source products, of which Zhejiang Sunshine has a small number of lamps exported, accounting for less than 10% of revenue, and the export tax rebate rate is lowered from 13%. To 11%, the impact on performance can be neglected, maintaining EPS forecasts of 0.93 yuan and 1.18 yuan in 2007 and 2008. Domestic and international market demand for energy-efficient lighting is at an explosive growth stage, maintaining an overweight rating for Zhejiang Yangon and Shell.
risk warning:
It does not rule out the possibility that the adjustment of the country's next round of export tax rebate policy involves home appliances.
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