In recent years, the LED industry has been optimistic about the rapid expansion of the industry and the market scale. However, this seemingly prosperous prosperity has caused many industry giants in the LED industry to feel deeply worried. Some insiders said that most of the downstream customers of LED companies are paying more and more credits, the payment cycle is getting longer and longer, and the phenomenon of arrears in the industry chain is getting more and more serious.
People's Finance and Economics learned from the "2nd CEO Conference of the 3rd G20-LED Summit" held in Guangzhou recently that in the past two years, the LED industry has had a serious overcapacity, and the tide of bankruptcy has frequently hit. At the beginning of this year, with the opening of the LED lighting market, the entire industry chain is booming. Despite the surge in orders from companies, the fierce price war has run through the entire industry chain.
Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute and chairman of Gaogong LED, even asserted that in the next five years, the entire industry will face a major reshuffle of the industry, and non-listed companies will be basically eliminated or integrated.
Controversy: The industry will be born in the next five years?
In 2018, will there be a LED company that can achieve 10 billion? At the second CEO meeting held on November 25th, 20 LED industry leaders, including Philips, Qinshang Optoelectronics, Tsinghua Tongfang and Hongli Optoelectronics, even gambled on this issue.
It is reported that G20-LED is a model that creatively imitates the international G20 summit. In the sub-sectors of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the entire industry chain, select the leading companies at home and abroad, and in the concept, society, and the industry responsible for some people together to form the G20 organization.
The views are basically divided into two factions.
Zhou Xuejun, director of marketing for Philips Asia, believes that in the Chinese market, Philips lighting sales are less than 6 billion, and NVC is only 3 billion. If sales are to be 10 billion, he doubts. He believes that in the future, Philips' monopoly in the field of fluorescent lamps will not appear again. With the advent of LEDs, it will be smaller than before, and the opportunities it creates may appear in some of the best companies in the market segment. “The level of Chinese companies is almost the same. It is very difficult to eat each other.â€
Ai Xiaoming, CEO of Osram China, believes that LED sales in China exceed 10 billion, which is only a matter of time. From now on, in 2018, the market has 100 billion, and 10 billion is only 1/10. So more than 10 billion is possible, and it may be from domestic companies, if it is technically good. Because any industry cannot be so dispersed as it is today, it is ultimately concentrated, forming industrial integration, and after integration, there will be 10 billion enterprises.
Zhang Xiaofei, secretary-general of the forum, agreed with Ai Xiaoming's point of view that the next five years will be a new round of industrial reshuffle, with most upstream companies dying and the survival rate is only about 30%. 40% of the 1750 mid-stream companies survive. In the downstream sector, the overall LED lighting company's mortality rate exceeds 50%, and the proportion of LED lighting companies will exceed the proportion of traditional lighting. From the perspective of industry consolidation, it is not difficult to have a tens of billions of companies.
Tan Changlin, general manager of TSMC Solid State Lighting, said that it is impossible to have a 10 billion-level enterprise. Because it is changing all day long, you can invest in this automation, and tomorrow may change, so integration is the best path. It is not the integration of industry, but the integration of upstream and downstream technologies.
It is predicted that non-listed companies will be basically eliminated in the next five years
In fact, the phenomenon of industry integration has already appeared. This year some companies have started the integration strategy of the company. Dehao Runda acquired NVC Lighting for vertical integration of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain; Sanan Optoelectronics plans to acquire Taiwan's Yuyuan Optoelectronics and the US lumens, both horizontally and vertically. Recently, Liard announced the acquisition of Jinda Lighting, hoping to use the latter's technological advantages, project experience, channel resources and customer resources to accelerate the expansion of the company's LED lighting business segment.
But in Zhang Xiaofei's view, 2014 is a truly hands-on year, and 2013 is a year of moving. The number of companies focusing on LED sales will reach its peak, and the total number of LED industry enterprises will reach its peak, and market competition will begin to be fierce. Some enterprises will be integrated and withdrawn. The channels in the circulation and provincial and first-tier cities will be more clear, but the third- and fourth-tier cities and county-level markets still have the opportunity to enter, and enterprises begin to find their own market segments. .
2015 is a node, industry integration is very fierce, channel construction will be more cruel, and the overall market layout is basically completed.
In 2016, a large number of middle and lower reaches companies withdrew, and the differentiation between the middle and lower reaches will be particularly obvious, and they will begin to clean up the integrated battlefield.
In 2017, it will be a year of decisive victory. It is not necessarily a leader, but you must stand in your own market and occupy your own space in some market segments to survive.
In 2018, the market's basic supply and demand balance was reached, that is, the dynamic supply and demand balance, the market is in a fine-tuned state, but the market size of the integrated lighting industry began to shrink, and a new round of reshuffle is about to begin.
“The companies that are shuffled, with a turnover of less than 10 million, have little chance of surviving in the future. Non-listed companies are basically eliminated or integrated, and non-listed companies are excluded from listed companies after IPOs are opened next year. Now It’s different from the past, the situation has been changing, and the country’s financial policy is changing. I believe there will be many difficulties in non-listed companies.†Zhang Xiaofei said.
Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tsinghua Tongfang, holds the same view. He believes that from the industrial stage, the first stage of the industry integration route is the price war, and it is about to enter an era of product performance ratio competition, and finally transferred to patent competition.
The price war has caused the industry chain to owe money seriously
Participants in the forum also generally believe that although the overall output of the LED lighting market is on a fast-rising channel this year, the price of the product has dropped too fast, and many companies have not really benefited from it.
Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tsinghua Tongfang, pointed out that the biggest problem for upstream enterprises is the price war, and the price war is at least two years. He believes that the use of price wars must be the best model for occupying the market. "As far as I am concerned, can you sell the chip price a little more expensive now? I am also trying it, but after reading it, it is impossible, or it is necessary to take the market demand as the leading factor, so it is impossible to raise the price."
Many participants reported that the price war has also led to a tight capital chain. Every enterprise finds that its customers are owing more and more money to their families, and even more and more they want to owe money to their suppliers. The phenomenon of arrears in the industrial chain is becoming more and more serious.
"Now in the supply chain, this is a very important thing in everyone's mind, especially at the end of the year." Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong LED, said that the lack of money faced by enterprises. Zhang Xiaofei said that he once visited a company. Within an hour, there were ten calls: "Brother, you can give me some money, it is not good, and half is OK."
Expert: Every company has a living space in the future
Although everyone has made the same judgment on the industry integration in the next five years, they all agree that they are optimistic about the market prospects, and they are also optimistic about their own competitiveness, indicating that they will increase their investment in this field. Zhu Bingzhong, vice president of Qinshang Optoelectronics, pointed out that since the third quarter, the company's profits have improved. "In terms of channels, we will gradually increase investment. Other aspects will increase investment, and the future trend will be better." Guangzhou Li Guoping, chairman of Hongli Optoelectronics, said that he will continue to invest money, purchase and optimize equipment, and gain scale advantages to reduce overall costs and obtain better profits.
According to a report released by the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, the overall output value of the LED industry will increase by about 20% in the fourth quarter of this year, while the annual output value of L3D indoor lighting will increase by 110% year-on-year. It is expected that next year, although the LED indoor lighting output value technology is increasing year by year, the output value growth rate will remain at around 60%.
Liu Jun, deputy secretary-general of Guangdong Lighting Association, believes that the overall market size will increase in the future, but it is more cruel, and many enterprises will be eliminated. It's like a cake. The bigger it gets, the bigger the fish will eat, the faster the fish will eat the slow fish. This is normal in the market. He stressed that there is a general discussion about whether LED lighting has excess capacity. He believes that this surplus is a structural excess.
At present, because of the end of the re-election, the local government has a clear pattern. Therefore, a large number of street lamps have to be replaced. In the next five years, there will be millions or even tens of millions of street lamps in China. This is a market scale of nearly 100 billion. However, EMC or BT is generally used, and there are not many cash purchases, so the requirements for enterprises are very high.
As for the gambling of LED CEOs, He Kailu, a professor of electronic science at Xiamen University and a director of LED promotion in Xiamen, said that in 2018, there are certainly companies that can achieve 10 billion. He believes that LED is an innovative industry, and it now has too many industry sectors, so it needs constant innovation. Innovative enterprises will continue to increase. Two-thirds of China's LED lighting companies are small enterprises, and tens of billions of enterprises cannot be Philips or Osram. Philips in China, the era of fluorescent tubes will not be there, so China's small LED lighting companies have great opportunities. If you always say that you want to be a big business, this guidance is wrong.
"The Chinese dream is everyone, every enterprise has a living space, and it is going to innovate. In the future, the small company under the network will be the most surviving and innovative, and don't dream of doing Philips." Professor He hopes to put this The sentence is communicated to all SMEs.
People's Finance and Economics learned from the "2nd CEO Conference of the 3rd G20-LED Summit" held in Guangzhou recently that in the past two years, the LED industry has had a serious overcapacity, and the tide of bankruptcy has frequently hit. At the beginning of this year, with the opening of the LED lighting market, the entire industry chain is booming. Despite the surge in orders from companies, the fierce price war has run through the entire industry chain.
Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute and chairman of Gaogong LED, even asserted that in the next five years, the entire industry will face a major reshuffle of the industry, and non-listed companies will be basically eliminated or integrated.
Controversy: The industry will be born in the next five years?
In 2018, will there be a LED company that can achieve 10 billion? At the second CEO meeting held on November 25th, 20 LED industry leaders, including Philips, Qinshang Optoelectronics, Tsinghua Tongfang and Hongli Optoelectronics, even gambled on this issue.
It is reported that G20-LED is a model that creatively imitates the international G20 summit. In the sub-sectors of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the entire industry chain, select the leading companies at home and abroad, and in the concept, society, and the industry responsible for some people together to form the G20 organization.
The views are basically divided into two factions.
Zhou Xuejun, director of marketing for Philips Asia, believes that in the Chinese market, Philips lighting sales are less than 6 billion, and NVC is only 3 billion. If sales are to be 10 billion, he doubts. He believes that in the future, Philips' monopoly in the field of fluorescent lamps will not appear again. With the advent of LEDs, it will be smaller than before, and the opportunities it creates may appear in some of the best companies in the market segment. “The level of Chinese companies is almost the same. It is very difficult to eat each other.â€
Ai Xiaoming, CEO of Osram China, believes that LED sales in China exceed 10 billion, which is only a matter of time. From now on, in 2018, the market has 100 billion, and 10 billion is only 1/10. So more than 10 billion is possible, and it may be from domestic companies, if it is technically good. Because any industry cannot be so dispersed as it is today, it is ultimately concentrated, forming industrial integration, and after integration, there will be 10 billion enterprises.
Zhang Xiaofei, secretary-general of the forum, agreed with Ai Xiaoming's point of view that the next five years will be a new round of industrial reshuffle, with most upstream companies dying and the survival rate is only about 30%. 40% of the 1750 mid-stream companies survive. In the downstream sector, the overall LED lighting company's mortality rate exceeds 50%, and the proportion of LED lighting companies will exceed the proportion of traditional lighting. From the perspective of industry consolidation, it is not difficult to have a tens of billions of companies.
Tan Changlin, general manager of TSMC Solid State Lighting, said that it is impossible to have a 10 billion-level enterprise. Because it is changing all day long, you can invest in this automation, and tomorrow may change, so integration is the best path. It is not the integration of industry, but the integration of upstream and downstream technologies.
It is predicted that non-listed companies will be basically eliminated in the next five years
In fact, the phenomenon of industry integration has already appeared. This year some companies have started the integration strategy of the company. Dehao Runda acquired NVC Lighting for vertical integration of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain; Sanan Optoelectronics plans to acquire Taiwan's Yuyuan Optoelectronics and the US lumens, both horizontally and vertically. Recently, Liard announced the acquisition of Jinda Lighting, hoping to use the latter's technological advantages, project experience, channel resources and customer resources to accelerate the expansion of the company's LED lighting business segment.
But in Zhang Xiaofei's view, 2014 is a truly hands-on year, and 2013 is a year of moving. The number of companies focusing on LED sales will reach its peak, and the total number of LED industry enterprises will reach its peak, and market competition will begin to be fierce. Some enterprises will be integrated and withdrawn. The channels in the circulation and provincial and first-tier cities will be more clear, but the third- and fourth-tier cities and county-level markets still have the opportunity to enter, and enterprises begin to find their own market segments. .
2015 is a node, industry integration is very fierce, channel construction will be more cruel, and the overall market layout is basically completed.
In 2016, a large number of middle and lower reaches companies withdrew, and the differentiation between the middle and lower reaches will be particularly obvious, and they will begin to clean up the integrated battlefield.
In 2017, it will be a year of decisive victory. It is not necessarily a leader, but you must stand in your own market and occupy your own space in some market segments to survive.
In 2018, the market's basic supply and demand balance was reached, that is, the dynamic supply and demand balance, the market is in a fine-tuned state, but the market size of the integrated lighting industry began to shrink, and a new round of reshuffle is about to begin.
“The companies that are shuffled, with a turnover of less than 10 million, have little chance of surviving in the future. Non-listed companies are basically eliminated or integrated, and non-listed companies are excluded from listed companies after IPOs are opened next year. Now It’s different from the past, the situation has been changing, and the country’s financial policy is changing. I believe there will be many difficulties in non-listed companies.†Zhang Xiaofei said.
Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tsinghua Tongfang, holds the same view. He believes that from the industrial stage, the first stage of the industry integration route is the price war, and it is about to enter an era of product performance ratio competition, and finally transferred to patent competition.
The price war has caused the industry chain to owe money seriously
Participants in the forum also generally believe that although the overall output of the LED lighting market is on a fast-rising channel this year, the price of the product has dropped too fast, and many companies have not really benefited from it.
Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tsinghua Tongfang, pointed out that the biggest problem for upstream enterprises is the price war, and the price war is at least two years. He believes that the use of price wars must be the best model for occupying the market. "As far as I am concerned, can you sell the chip price a little more expensive now? I am also trying it, but after reading it, it is impossible, or it is necessary to take the market demand as the leading factor, so it is impossible to raise the price."
Many participants reported that the price war has also led to a tight capital chain. Every enterprise finds that its customers are owing more and more money to their families, and even more and more they want to owe money to their suppliers. The phenomenon of arrears in the industrial chain is becoming more and more serious.
"Now in the supply chain, this is a very important thing in everyone's mind, especially at the end of the year." Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong LED, said that the lack of money faced by enterprises. Zhang Xiaofei said that he once visited a company. Within an hour, there were ten calls: "Brother, you can give me some money, it is not good, and half is OK."
Expert: Every company has a living space in the future
Although everyone has made the same judgment on the industry integration in the next five years, they all agree that they are optimistic about the market prospects, and they are also optimistic about their own competitiveness, indicating that they will increase their investment in this field. Zhu Bingzhong, vice president of Qinshang Optoelectronics, pointed out that since the third quarter, the company's profits have improved. "In terms of channels, we will gradually increase investment. Other aspects will increase investment, and the future trend will be better." Guangzhou Li Guoping, chairman of Hongli Optoelectronics, said that he will continue to invest money, purchase and optimize equipment, and gain scale advantages to reduce overall costs and obtain better profits.
According to a report released by the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, the overall output value of the LED industry will increase by about 20% in the fourth quarter of this year, while the annual output value of L3D indoor lighting will increase by 110% year-on-year. It is expected that next year, although the LED indoor lighting output value technology is increasing year by year, the output value growth rate will remain at around 60%.
Liu Jun, deputy secretary-general of Guangdong Lighting Association, believes that the overall market size will increase in the future, but it is more cruel, and many enterprises will be eliminated. It's like a cake. The bigger it gets, the bigger the fish will eat, the faster the fish will eat the slow fish. This is normal in the market. He stressed that there is a general discussion about whether LED lighting has excess capacity. He believes that this surplus is a structural excess.
At present, because of the end of the re-election, the local government has a clear pattern. Therefore, a large number of street lamps have to be replaced. In the next five years, there will be millions or even tens of millions of street lamps in China. This is a market scale of nearly 100 billion. However, EMC or BT is generally used, and there are not many cash purchases, so the requirements for enterprises are very high.
As for the gambling of LED CEOs, He Kailu, a professor of electronic science at Xiamen University and a director of LED promotion in Xiamen, said that in 2018, there are certainly companies that can achieve 10 billion. He believes that LED is an innovative industry, and it now has too many industry sectors, so it needs constant innovation. Innovative enterprises will continue to increase. Two-thirds of China's LED lighting companies are small enterprises, and tens of billions of enterprises cannot be Philips or Osram. Philips in China, the era of fluorescent tubes will not be there, so China's small LED lighting companies have great opportunities. If you always say that you want to be a big business, this guidance is wrong.
"The Chinese dream is everyone, every enterprise has a living space, and it is going to innovate. In the future, the small company under the network will be the most surviving and innovative, and don't dream of doing Philips." Professor He hopes to put this The sentence is communicated to all SMEs.
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